Income Risk of Eu Coal-fired Power Plants After

نویسندگان

  • Luis M. Abadie
  • José M. Chamorro
چکیده

Coal-…red power plants may enjoy a signi…cant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the …rst post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbonconstrained environment, coal plants face …nancial risks arising in their pro…t margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called ’clean dark spread’. These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-…red plants’marginal costs, which di¤er from coal plants’costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants’margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk pro…le of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under di¤erent

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تاریخ انتشار 2008